Writer and author of 30 peer reviewed articles | Systematic reviewer | Data analyst | Expert in R | Epidemiologist

Anthony Muchai Manyara, Anthony Purvis, Oriana Ciani, Gary S. Collins, Rod S. Taylor (2024). Sample size in multistakeholder Delphi surveys: at what minimum sample size do replicability of results stabilize? . Journal of Clinical Epidemiology.

Prevalence, factors and quality of life associated with frailty and pre-frailty in middle-aged and older adults living with HIV in Zimbabwe @article{5a3ab476b1e54f349b1ea6b5ad8dd7a4, title = "Prevalence, factors and quality of life associated with frailty and pre-frailty in middle-aged and older adults living with HIV in Zimbabwe: a cross-sectional study", abstract = "ObjectivesWe investigated associations between HIV, frailty, and health-related quality of life (HRQoL).MethodsThis cross-sectional study recruited men and women aged ≥40 years in Zimbabwe. A researcher collected clinical and HRQoL data, performed physical assessments and HIV testing. Frailty was defined using five criteria: unintentional weight loss, exhaustion, low physical activity, low gait speed, low handgrip strength. Presence of ≥3 criteria defined frailty, 1-2 pre-frailty, and 0 non-frail. Data analysis used adjusted regression modelling.ResultsOf 1034 adults (mean±SD 62.0±14.0 years), 21.6% (n=223) were living with HIV: 93.3%knew their status, of whom 96.2% were on ART, of whom 89.7% had a viral load <50copies/mL. Mean age at HIV diagnosis was 44.6±10.4 years (only 8.1% ≥70 years), people had been living with HIV for 9.8±5.0 years and had been on ART for 9.4±5.2 years. Overall, HIV was not associated with frailty: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.99 (95%CI:0.42-2.33) for frailty versus non-frailty. However, each 5-years lived with HIV was associated with twice the odds of frailty/pre-frailty (aOR 2.03 [1.03-4.13]), independent of age and ART duration. Furthermore, each 5-years of ART use was associated with 60% lower odds of frailty/pre-frailty (aOR 0.39 [0.19-0.78]), independent of age and years lived with HIV. Older age, minimal education and poverty were associated with frailty. Frailty was associated with lower HRQoL in people both with and without HIV.ConclusionReduced survival and good viral suppression may explain the lack of association between HIV and frailty. Early ART initiation could reduce future risk of frailty. ", keywords = "Frailty; HIV; Ageing; Zimbabwe; Africa; HRQoL", author = "Manyara, {Anthony M} and Tadios Manyanga and Burton, {Anya J} and Wilson, {Hannah F} and Joseph Chipanga and Tsitsi Bandason and Chris Grundy and Madela, {Yoliswa I} and Kate Ward and Bilkish Cassim and Rashida Ferrand and Gregson, {Celia L}", note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2024 The Author(s). HIV Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British HIV Association.", year = "2024", month = sep, day = "20", doi = "10.1111/hiv.13716", language = "English", journal = "HIV Medicine", issn = "1464-2662", publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell", } . HIV Medicine.

Anthony Muchai Manyara, Tadios Manyanga, Anya Burton, Hannah Wilson, Joseph Chipanga, Tsitsi Bandason, Chris Grundy, Etheldreda I. Yoliswa Madela, Kate A. Ward, Bilkish Cassim, et al. (2024). Prevalence, factors and quality of life associated with frailty and pre‐frailty in middle‐aged and older adults living with HIV in Zimbabwe: A cross‐sectional study . HIV Medicine.

Rod S. Taylor, Anthony Muchai Manyara, Joseph S. Ross, Oriana Ciani (2024). Surrogate End Points in Trials—SPIRIT and CONSORT Extensions . JAMA.

Anthony Muchai Manyara, Philippa Davies, Derek Stewart, Christopher J Weir, Amber E Young, Jane Blazeby, Nancy J Butcher, Sylwia Bujkiewicz, An-Wen Chan, Dalia Dawoud, et al. (2024). Reporting of surrogate endpoints in randomised controlled trial protocols (SPIRIT-Surrogate): extension checklist with explanation and elaboration . BMJ.

Anthony Muchai Manyara, Philippa Davies, Derek Stewart, Christopher J Weir, Amber E Young, Jane Blazeby, Nancy J Butcher, Sylwia Bujkiewicz, An-Wen Chan, Dalia Dawoud, et al. (2024). Reporting of surrogate endpoints in randomised controlled trial reports (CONSORT-Surrogate): extension checklist with explanation and elaboration . BMJ.

Anthony Muchai Manyara, Oriana Ciani, Rod S Taylor (2024). Transparent and complete reporting of surrogate endpoints in trials: the SPIRIT-Surrogate and CONSORT-Surrogate extensions . The Lancet.

Robin Christensen, Oriana Ciani, Anthony M. Manyara, Rod S. Taylor (2024). Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol is not a successful surrogate endpoint: author’s reply . Journal of Clinical Epidemiology.

Robin Christensen, Oriana Ciani, Anthony M. Manyara, Rod S. Taylor (2024). Surrogate endpoints: a key concept in clinical epidemiology . Journal of Clinical Epidemiology.

Perceptions of diabetes risk and prevention in Nairobi, Kenya @article{9985a0c98c5f4b89880f2e868b41e4fe, title = "Perceptions of diabetes risk and prevention in Nairobi, Kenya: A qualitative and theory of change development study", abstract = "BackgroundType 2 diabetes is increasing in Kenya, especially in urban settings, and prevention interventions based on local evidence and context are urgently needed. Therefore, this study aimed to explore diabetes risk and co-create a diabetes prevention theory of change in two socioeconomically distinct communities to inform future diabetes prevention interventions.MethodsIn-depth interviews were conducted with middle-aged residents in two communities in Nairobi (one low-income (n = 15), one middle-income (n = 14)), and thematically analysed. The theory of change for diabetes prevention was informed by analysis of the in-depth interviews and the Behaviour Change Wheel framework, and reviewed by a sub-set (n = 13) of interviewees.ResultsThe key factors that influenced diabetes preventive practices in both communities included knowledge and skills for diabetes prevention, understanding of the benefits/consequences of (un)healthy lifestyle, social influences (e.g., upbringing, societal perceptions), and environmental contexts (e.g., access to (un)healthy foods and physical activity facilities). The proposed strategies for diabetes prevention included: increasing knowledge and understanding about diabetes risk and preventive measures particularly in the low-income community; supporting lifestyle modification (e.g., upskilling, goal setting, action planning) in both communities; identifying people at high risk of diabetes through screening in both communities; and creating social and physical environments for lifestyle modification (e.g., positive social influences on healthy living, access to healthy foods and physical activity infrastructure) particularly in the low-income community. Residents from both communities agreed that the strategies were broadly feasible for diabetes prevention but proposed the addition of door-to-door campaigns and community theatre for health education. However, residents from the low-income community were concerned about the lack of government prioritisation for implementing population-level interventions, e.g., improving access to healthy foods and physical activity facilities/infrastructure.ConclusionDiabetes prevention initiatives in Kenya should involve multicomponent interventions for lifestyle modification including increasing education and upskilling at individual level; promoting social and physical environments that support healthy living at population level; and are particularly needed in low-income communities.", author = "Manyara, {Anthony muchai} and Elizabeth Mwaniki and Gill, {Jason M. R.} and Gray, {Cindy m.}", note = "Publisher Copyright: Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2024 Manyara et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.", year = "2024", month = feb, day = "13", doi = "10.1371/journal.pone.0297779", language = "English", volume = "19", journal = "PLoS ONE", issn = "1932-6203", publisher = "Public Library of Science", number = "2", } . PLoS ONE.

Anthony Muchai Manyara, Kufre Joseph Okop, Elizabeth Mwaniki, Jason M. R. Gill, Cindy M. Gray (2024). Perceptions of diabetes risk and prevention in Nairobi, Kenya: A qualitative and theory of change development study . PLOS ONE.

Anthony Muchai Manyara, Elizabeth Mwaniki, Jason MR Gill, Cindy M Gray (2024). Knowledge, perceptions and practices towards diabetes risk in sub-Saharan Africa: a mixed-methods scoping review . Public Health Nutrition.

ORIANA CIANI, Anthony M. Manyara, Philippa Davies, Derek Stewart, Christopher J. Weir, Amber E. Young, Jane Blazeby, Nancy J. Butcher, Sylwia Bujkiewicz, An-Wen Chan, et al.(2023). A framework for the definition and interpretation of the use of surrogate endpoints in interventional trials . eClinicalMedicine. 65. p. 102283. Elsevier {BV}

Anthony Muchai Manyara, Philippa Davies, Derek Stewart, Christopher J. Weir, Amber E. Young, Valerie Wells, Jane Blazeby, Nancy J. Butcher, Sylwia Bujkiewicz, An-Wen Chan, et al. (2023). Definitions, acceptability, limitations, and guidance in the use and reporting of surrogate end points in trials: a scoping review . Journal of Clinical Epidemiology.

Anthony Muchai Manyara(2022). Completeness in reporting of surrogate primary endpoints in Randomised Controlled Trials: A targeted review protocol . protocols.io.

Scoping and targeted reviews to support development of SPIRIT and CONSORT extensions for randomised controlled trials with surrogate primary endpoints: protocol <head> <META HTTP-EQUIV="Refresh" CONTENT="0;URL=/servlet/useragent"> </head> . BMJ Open.

Protocol for the development of SPIRIT and CONSORT extensions for randomised controlled trials with surrogate primary endpoints: SPIRIT-SURROGATE and CONSORT-SURROGATE <head> <META HTTP-EQUIV="Refresh" CONTENT="0;URL=/servlet/useragent"> </head> . BMJ Open.

Surrogate end points in cardio-thoracic trials: a call for better reporting and improved interpretation of trial findings <head> <META HTTP-EQUIV="Refresh" CONTENT="0;URL=/servlet/useragent"> </head> . European Journal of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery.

Anthony Muchai Manyara(2022). Need for better reporting of trials with surrogate endpoints: SPIRIT|CONSORT-SURROGATE extensions . Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health. 76. (9). p. 769--770. {BMJ}

Anthony Muchai Manyara(2022). Surrogate endpoints in trials—a call for better reporting . BMJ. p. o1912. {BMJ}

Ozren Pola{\v{s}}ek and Kerri Wazny and Davies Adeloye and Peige Song and Kit Y Chan and Danladi A Bojude and Sajjad Ali and Sheri Bastien and Francisco Becerra-Posada and Florencia Borrescio-Higa and Sohaila Cheema and Darien A Cipta and Smiljana Cvjetkovi{\'{c}} and Lina D Castro and Bassey Ebenso and Omolade Femi-Ajao and Balasankar Ganesan and Anton Glasnovi{\'{c}} and Longtao He and Jean M Heraud and Chinonso Igwesi-Chidobe and Per O Iversen and Bismeen Jadoon and Abdulkarim J Karim and Johra Khan and Raaj K Biswas and Giuseppe Lanza and Shaun WH Lee and You Li and Li-Lin Liang and Mat Lowe and Mohammad M Islam and Ana Maru{\v{s}}i{\'{c}} and Suleiman Mshelia and Anthony M Manyara and Mila NN Htay and Michelle Parisi and Prince Peprah and Emma Sacks and Kabiru O Akinyemi and Fariba Shahraki-Sanavi and Konstantin Sharov and Elena S Rotarou and Srdjan Stankov and Wenang Supriyatiningsih and Benjamin TY Chan and Mark Tremblay and Dialechti Tsimpida and Sandro Vento and Josipa V Glasnovi{\'{c}} and Liang Wang and Xin Wang and Zhi X Ng and Jianrong Zhang and Yanfeng Zhang and Harry Campbell and Mickey Chopra and Simon Cousens and Goran Krsti{\'{c}} and Calum Macdonald and Parisa Mansoori and Smruti Patel and Aziz Sheikh and Mark Tomlinson and Alexander C Tsai and Sachiyo Yoshida and Igor Rudan(2022). Research priorities to reduce the impact of COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries . Journal of Global Health. 12. International Global Health Society

Anthony Muchai Manyara, Oriana Ciani, Rod S. Taylor (2022). A call for better reporting of trials using surrogate primary endpoints . Alzheimer's & Dementia: Translational Research & Clinical Interventions.

Anthony Muchai Manyara, Oriana Ciani, Rod S. Taylor (2022). Reply to Commentary by Cummings (2022): Surrogate endpoints extend beyond biomarkers . Alzheimer's & Dementia: Translational Research & Clinical Interventions.

Ciani, O., Manyara, A., Taylor, R.S.(2022). Need for better reporting of trials with surrogate endpoints: SPIRIT|CONSORT-SURROGATE extensions . Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health. 76. (9). p. 769-770.

Polašek, O., Wazny, K., Adeloye, D., Song, P., Chan, K.Y., Bojude, D.A., Ali, S., Bastien, S., Becerra-Posada, F., Borrescio-Higa, F., et al.(2022). Research priorities to reduce the impact of COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries . Journal of Global Health. 12. p. 1-14.

Ciani, O., Manyara, A.M., Taylor, R.S.(2022). Surrogate endpoints in trials - a call for better reporting . The BMJ.

Ciani, O., Manyara, A.M., Taylor, R.S.(2022). Surrogate end points in cardio-thoracic trials: a call for better reporting and improved interpretation of trial findings . European journal of cardio-thoracic surgery : official journal of the European Association for Cardio-thoracic Surgery. 62. (4).

Anthony Muchai Manyara and Elizabeth Mwaniki and Cindy M. Gray and Jason M. R. Gill(2021). Comparison of risk factors between people with type 2 diabetes and matched controls in Nairobi, Kenya . Tropical Medicine & International Health. 26. (9). p. 1075--1087. Wiley

Manyara, A.M., Mwaniki, E., Gray, C.M., Gill, J.M.R.(2021). Comparison of risk factors between people with type 2 diabetes and matched controls in Nairobi, Kenya . Tropical Medicine and International Health. 26. (9). p. 1075-1087.

Anthony Muchai Manyara and(2021). Optimal cut-offs of five anthropometric indices and their predictive ability of type 2 diabetes in a nationally representative Kenyan study . AIMS Public Health. 8. (3). p. 507--518. American Institute of Mathematical Sciences ({AIMS})

(2019). A protocol for a multi-site, spatially-referenced household survey in slum settings: methods for access, sampling frame construction, sampling, and field data collection . BMC Medical Research Methodology.

Bakibinga, P., Kabaria, C., Kyobutungi, C., Manyara, A., Mbaya, N., Mohammed, S., Njeri, A., Azam, I., Iqbal, R., Mazaffar, S., et al.(2019). A protocol for a multi-site, spatially-referenced household survey in slum settings: Methods for access, sampling frame construction, sampling, and field data collection . BMC Medical Research Methodology. 19. (1).

(2018). Exploring the multidisciplinary extent of public health career structures in 12 countries: an exploratory mapping . Journal of Public Health.

(2018). Employability and career experiences of international graduates of MSc Public Health: a mixed methods study . Public Health.

Buunaaisie, C., Manyara, A.M., Annett, H., Bird, E.L., Bray, I., Ige, J., Jones, M., Orme, J., Pilkington, P., Evans, D.(2018). Employability and career experiences of international graduates of MSc Public Health: a mixed methods study . Public Health. 160. p. 62-69.

Manyara, A.M., Buunaaisie, C., Annett, H., Bird, E., Bray, I., Ige, J., Jones, M., Orme, J., Pilkington, P., Evans, D.(2018). Exploring the multidisciplinary extent of public health career structures in 12 countries: an exploratory mapping . Journal of public health (Oxford, England). 40. (4). p. e538-e544.

(2017). Recentralization within decentralization: County hospital autonomy under devolution in Kenya . PLOS ONE.

Barasa, E.W., Manyara, A.M., Molyneux, S., Tsofa, B.(2017). Recentralization within decentralization: County hospital autonomy under devolution in Kenya . PLoS ONE. 12. (8).

Anthony Muchai Manyara, PROTUS MUSOTSI (2023). Diabetes research in Kenya from 2000 to 2020: A scoping review .

Completeness in reporting of surrogate primary endpoints in Randomised Controlled Trials: A targeted review protocol v1 <head> <META HTTP-EQUIV="Refresh" CONTENT="0;URL=/servlet/useragent"> </head> .

Anthony Muchai Manyara(2021). Optimal cut-offs of four anthropometric measures and their predictive ability of diabetes in a nationally representative Kenyan study . Research Square

Manyara, A.M.(2021). Optimal cut-offs of four anthropometric measures and their predictive ability of diabetes in a nationally representative Kenyan study . ResearchSquare.